In this post:
- In January, Polymarket’s trading volume falls to a mere $515 million.
- The platform experienced its peak activity in November, driven by wagers on the US presidential election.
- Polymarket has been blocked by the Singaporean government.
Despite having a huge following in 2024, the American prediction site Polymarket has noticed a decline in activity just a few weeks into 2025. Usually, the prediction platform asks users to wager cryptocurrency on “yes” or “no” responses to a given topic.
The site had a sharp increase in wagers on the outcome of the election just prior to the November 5 election, indicating that the election outcomes were a significantly more interesting subject for the cryptocurrency community than the subjects it is now covering.
In January, Polymarket’s trading volume drops by $2 billion compared to November
In October and November, the trade volume on the prediction platform Polymarket was $2.3 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively, according to Dune Analytics.
The increase in wagers on the outcome of the US election scheduled for November 5th is the reason for the spike in trade volume. The fact that November 2024 trading volume was about 37,700% higher than November 2023’s $6.8 million volume suggests that election outcomes were significant to cryptocurrency investors.
The market has found it difficult to sustain the same level of activity in 2025, even after a spike in November. In the first few weeks of 2025, trading volume has decreased from $1.9 billion in December to just $515 million.
Moreover, open interest on Polymarket slumped by 77% between November 6 and January 13.
Predictions regarding whether Donald Trump would try to buy Greenland, whether New York City would abandon its contentious congestion pricing program by summer, and how frequently Elon Musk will post on X this week were among the most trending markets as of January 14.
Market competition, user complaints, and regulations continue to be problems for Polymarket.
Despite the fact that Polymarket’s trading volume increased in November, its widespread appeal did draw regulatory attention. Shayne Coplan, the CEO of Polymarket, was searched by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation in November to see whether the market was still abiding by the 2022 prohibition on US markets.
In addition, Singapore joined Taiwan and France in limiting access to the prediction site in January.
Some of the platform’s users have even voiced concerns over some of the market’s bets, particularly those centered around LA wildfires. Some have claimed the platform was trying to profit from a national disaster, inviting criticism from concerned crypto investors.
Not to mention, the platform still has to fight off top competitor Kalshi after the firm won the court’s favor in September, allowing American users to bet on its platform.
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